As every year, at the end of the second Corona year 2021, we would like to make a forecast for the coming year 2022. The following are just those topics that we believe will manifest themselves or even develop further. Regardless: Stay healthy!

Rapid Professionalization of Ransomware

Ransomware attacks increased rapidly in 2021 and a strong improvement in professionalization had to be observed. This trend will continue, making ransomware the #1 issue among businesses and legal professionals. Technical optimizations will make it more and more difficult to prevent infections with by usual means. And double-extortion will grant more opportunities to successful attacks. Companies that have criminally neglected this topic over the past few years in particular will have to catch up under high time pressure. Those who fail to do so are literally inviting attacks.

Supply Chain in Focus of Cybersecurity

The Supply Chain moves into the center of interest on two levels at once. On the one hand, COVID-19 has shown that globalization has subjected us to a dangerous dependency. On the other hand, recent attacks show that compromising supply chain confidentiality can become a highly dangerous risk. Accordingly, at least in the short term, supply chain risk will become a central issue. Isolated efforts are being made to regain more independence. In the long term, however, it is likely that only the desire to optimize profits will win again.

Stagnation in Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has been a trendy topic in recent years and has been met with a great deal of euphoria. The fact that exciting solutions can take center stage with novel developments cannot be denied. Nevertheless, stagnation is slowly setting in in this area. This is mainly due to the fact that the topic has so far been driven mainly by visions and only a few real breakthroughs that manifest themselves in everyday life can be observed. Many companies are still very cautious when it comes to adapting the novel possibilities. This reluctance will continue for the time being.

Windows 11 becomes an Irritant

Although it was said that Windows 10 will be the last Windows, Microsoft has launched the new Windows 11 this year. The strict hardware requirements are reminiscent of the unpopularity that has already fallen to Windows Vista. Many people wonder if and why they should switch to the new Windows generation. It could well be that Microsoft’s classic trend will continue with this one: A successful Windows is followed by a less successful one. Whether this will really be the case will still be hotly debated.

Corona Laws and Privacy

The corona pandemic has made it necessary in many countries for governments to be given additional legal means to cope with the unforeseen situation. For example, additional authorizations have been enacted and enhanced technical mechanisms for contact tracing have been established. These measures will be up for discussion in the long term, should the pandemic eventually subside. People will want the removal of these options so that they too can return to the tried and true in terms of restrictions and privacy. Emotionally charged discussions will be inevitable. Especially since the pandemic will leave certain mechanisms in place that should have been temporary.

Cyber Threat Intelligence as Evolution

Cybersecurity is still understood by many companies as a mechanism for static prevention and dynamic response. However, the topic of Cyber Threat Intelligence is concerned with being able to anticipate attacks in order to stay one step ahead of the attackers. This relatively new area will become increasingly important as the TIBER-EU standard directly links the topic of Red Teaming with Cyber Threat Intelligence . Very few providers of Security Testing Services can deliver both from a single source.

About the Author

Marc Ruef has been working in information security since the late 1990s. He is well-known for his many publications and books. The last one called The Art of Penetration Testing is discussing security testing in detail. He is a lecturer at several faculties, like ETH, HWZ, HSLU and IKF. (ORCID 0000-0002-1328-6357)

Links

• https://vuldb.com/?doc.cti
• https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/windows-11-specifications